Electoral Vote Prediction

Holy cow the big day is here! I don't know whether to be relieved or scared!
The map above shows my prediction for how the election will turn out. It shows a 364 - 174 Electoral Vote win for Obama. I'll briefly explain how I came to my conclusions. The key to Obama winning is increased turnout among African Americans, younger voters and Democratic voters. Also, hopefully, some Republicans stay home since Republicans are not nearly as motivated as 4 years ago.
Florida: Obama: Polls have consistently leaned slightly in Obama's favor. The margin is very close however.
North Carolina: Obama: Polls since early October have consistently leaned slightly Obama. Democrats also registered large numbers of new Dems in Primary. Early voting has shown a distinct Obama lean and more voters have voted early than who voted in all of 2004. It will be very close.
Virginia: Obama: Polls have favored Obama since late September. His margin for weeks was above the margin of error. Polls have tightened to around 4-6 points but i think he'll pull it out. Polls on election day close at 7 pm. If it is apparent Obama has won here McCain needs a miracle.
Pennsylvania: Obama: McCain's best scenario for winning is to flip PA. For most of October the margin between them was double digits but the margin has tightened to within 5-10 points. However, that is beyond the margin of error and not one poll has shown McCain with any lead in PA.
Ohio: Obama: Obama's margins have been good here in October but the race has tightened. The average of polling leans toward Obama but it's going to be close. Hopefully Obama's voter turnout machine works better than the Republicans'.
Indiana: McCain: For a while Obama had some leads but lately it seems McCain has gained some sort of a lead. This race will be close but I think McCain will hold on to the state.
Missouri: Obama: Polls have been trending Obama since October but it is very close. this race is truly 50/50 depending on who gets there voters to the polls. I'm betting Obama can do it but this choice may be more of a hope than an educated guess. We'll see.
New Hampshire: Obama: Obama has been kicking butt in polls for the whole election season.
Iowa: Obama: All the time during the primary paid off. Obama is kicking butt. Bush won this state in 2004.
New Mexico: Obama: Obama has maintained a large polling lead all year. Bush won this state in 2004.
Colorado: Obama: This is probably Obama's best chance at winning the Presidency. 60% have already voted early and that tally favors Democrats. Polls have consistently favored Obama by more than the margin of error. In fact I don't think a poll has given McCain any kind of lead here except maybe slightly right after the RNC convention.
Nevada: Obama: This race has polling close but leaning Obama fairly consistently. Polls have shown that as much as 70% have voted already and of those voters Obama has a commanding lead.
Georgia McCain: This race just got close recently. Early voting numbers are high and they favor Obama, but that doesn't mean he'll win. Polls have consistently favored McCain. I think it'll be very close here though. Maybe McCain 1-5 points.
Montana McCain How in the world did Montana become competitive! Polling his shown a tight race in the last few weeks but polls have consistently showed it tied or favoring McCain. I think McCain will win but i don't know what to expect here.
North Dakota McCain Same thing as Montana, I think it'll go McCain but all of a sudden it has polled barely McCain or tied.

OK, that's my guess...jeez i hope I'm right!! ....